Special Seminar

May 25, 1995 




Present Shock’s Emerging Opportunities

 

 

A talk prepared especially for:

 




The Graduate Program in Advanced Manufacturing

The University of California, San Diego

 

 

by:

 

James E. Cook

Visiting Lecturer




 

Contents

2 of 25

       




 

Present Shock's Opportunities

3 of 25

       




 

Toffler’s Challenge

4 of 25

 

Disposable Products

From Barbie dolls to soda bottles, cameras, tooth brushes and towels.

Overwhelming Choices

Mind boggling menus, overflowing racks of clothes, and even more (possible) models than cars.

Rootless Society

Malls in the country and abandonment of inner cities, all for upward mobility.

Frantic Lifestyles

Fast food, few friends, at least two jobs per family, and less time for kids.

 

 



 

Our Response

5 of 25

 

Recyclable Products

instead of

Disposable Products

Consumer Designs

instead of

Overwhelming Choices

Permanent Community

instead of

Rootless Society

Self-Paced Living

instead of

Frantic Lifestyles

UTOPIA? No.

Uncertain Future

Wealth Distribution

Reality Crisis





 

Our Opportunity

6 of 25

 

Permanent Communities

 

enabled by

 

Telecommunting and its enablers, the Internet and Personal Computers.

 

 

 

 

 

Self-Paced Living

 

enabled by

 

Self-paced working/ buying/ paying/ planning/ corresponding/ and playing at and near the home thanks to Cellular Phones, Portable Computers, and "Valet Knowbots."

 

 

 

 

 

Recyclable Products

 

enabled by

 

Systematic collection and processing, and a "life cycle" design mentality encompassing new products, materials and natural resources.

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Designs

 

enabled by

 

"Outlet Factories" which rapidly construct and assemble custom designs for a lower cost thanks to CAD/CAM, Virtual Reality, and "Preference Knowbots."

   

Designs vs. Guesses

7 of 25

       




 

Outlet Factories?

8 of 25

 

Consumer Designs

instead of

Producers’ Guesses


Resulting in the elimination of:

Product Hunting,

"Compromise Buying,"

"Salesperson Friction,"

Inventory Write-Offs,

Distribution Middlemen,

Coordination Costs, and

Wasted Material, Fuel, Space and Labor



It requires that Consumers ,   one by one ,   Activate Production !

 



 
Consumer Activated Production - Examples

9 of 25

    Its already happening whenever you:  
 

l

Order a pizza or drive up to a fast food restaurant

l

Go to Lenscrafters for custom eye glasses

l

Customize a "Sentiment Card" or "Child’s Storybook"

l

Call 1-800-FLOWERS for a bouquet delivery

l

Match paint to a patch or make a door key

l

Get pictures printed in an hour right at the store

 

Note:        At the same cost as Producer Driven Products, you will always get:

" what you want ,   when you want ,   where you want ! "

 

Consumer Activated Production - Satisfaction

10 of 25



 

Producer Driven Production (what you’re used to today)

 

 

occurs with limited variety and high uncertainty (of

 

 

having on-hand what you, the consumer, wants).




Consumer Activated Production occurs with unlimited,

 

but bounded, variety and high certainty (of delivering

 

what you want, when you want it, to where you want it).







 

Consumer Activated Production - Enabling

11 of 25

 

   Its enabled by:

l

Well managed expectations

l

Robotic selection and "experiencing" aids

l

Very versatile materials

l

Very modular parts

l

Rapid assembly designs

l

Rapidly assemblying machines (and tools)

 

Coincidentally, this is where the opportunity is!





 

Paradigms in Retailing

12 of 25

       




 

Value Adding in Paradigms

13 of 25



Traditional: Producer Driven Production

Extracting

®

Refining

®

Producing

®

Assembling

®

Distributing

¬ ®

Retailing

®

Consuming

% abs. value:

10

 

15

 

25

 

50

 

60

 

90

 

100

% value added:

+5

 

+10

 

+25

 

+10

 

+30

 

+10

 




Future: Consumer Activated Production

Extracting

®

Refining

®

Producing

®

Assembling

¬  ¾  ¾  ¾  ¾  ¾ ®

Retailing

¬

Consuming

 

% abs. value:

10

 

15

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

95

 

100

% value added:

+5

 

+10

 

 

 

+70

 

 

 

+5

 

 

Note: The numbers shown are pro forma percentages of the "manufacturer’s suggested retail price."

 



 

Evolution of the Value Chain

14 of 25



"Mass Merchandising" (1950-1980)
Extracting ® Refining ® Producing ® Assembling ® Distributing ¬® Retailing ® Consuming Ø 
  I n d e p e n d e n t    |
  Dumping  ¿ 


"Discount Merchandising" (1970-2000)
Extracting ® Refining ® Producing ® Assembling ¬® Distributing ® Retailing ® Consuming Ø 

 

C o o r d i n a t e d   a la  WalMart    |
  Dumping  ¿ 


"Factory Outlet" (1990-2020)
Extracting ® Refining ® Producing ¬® Assembling ®  "PUSH FORWARD"  ® Retailing ® Consuming Ø 
  I n t e g r a t e d   a la  Dell    |
  Dumping  ¿ 


"Outlet Factory" (2010-204?)
Extracting ® Refining ® Producing ¬® Assembling «   " RESONATE "   « E-tailing « Consuming Ø 
     ↑­ ↑­ ↑   C y b e r n a t e d   a la  Amazon    |
     ↑­ ↑ ↑   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾ Recycling  ¿ 


"Community Factory" (203?-20??)
Harvesting ¬® Refining ® Producing ¬   " P U L L "   ¬ E-tailing « Consuming ® Assembling  Ø 
  ­ ­ ­ ↑­ ↑­ ↑ O r g a n a t e d   a la  Craigslist    ↑­ ↑ ↑   ¾    ¾   ¬    ↑­ ­ ­↑  |
     ↑­ ↑­ ↑   ¾   ¾   ¾   ¾ ¬  "PUSH BACK"  ¬  Recycling ¬ Redistributing  ¿ 

 





 

Locus of the Value Adding

15 of 25


"Mass Merchandising" (1950-1980)

Extractor

®

Refiner

®

Producer

®

Assembler

®

Distributor

¬ ®

Retailer

¬

Consumer

 Ø

 N A T I O N A L

 

 R E G I O N A L

 

L O C A L

    |

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dumper

 ¿

"Discount Merchandising" (1970-2000)

Extractor

®

Refiner

®

Producer

®

Assembler

®

Distributor

¬ ®

Retailer

¬

Consumer

 Ø

G    L    O    B    A    L

 OFF-SHORE

 

 REGIONAL

 

L O C A L

    |

 

Dumper

 ¿

"Factory Outlet" (1990-2020)

Extractor

®

Refiner

®

Producer

®

Assembler

® ®  " PUSH "  ® ®

Retailer

¬

Consumer

 Ø

G    L    O    B    A    L

 

 OFF-SHORE

  

L O C A L

    |

 

Dumper

 ¿

"Outlet Factory" (2010-204?)
Extractor ® Refiner

®

Producer

®

Assembler

«  "RESONATE"  «

Retailer

¬

Consumer

 Ø
GLOBAL

 

  N  A  T  I  O  N  A  L

 

 L    O    C    A    L

    |
  ­¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾

Recycling

 ¿

"Community Factory" (2030?-??)

Extractor

®

Refiner

®

Producer

®

Assembler

«   " RESONATE "   «

Retailer

¬

Consumer

 Ø
GLOBAL

 

E     N     T     I     E     L     Y                 L     O     C     A     L

    |
  ­   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾   ¾   ¾    ¾

Recycling

 ¿





 

Economics & Diffusion

16 of 25

       




 

The Defining Economics

17 of 25



Traditional: Producer Driven Production (PDP)

 

 

PDP WASTE =

Retail and Distribution losses due to:

 

obsolete, stolen, discounted, damaged, and carrying inventory plus
transportation, packaging, acquisition, and coordination costs plus
collateral "traffic" losses and the differential costs of salespersons

 

+

Assembly and Producer losses due to:

 

transition, quantization, and coordination costs

+

Consumer losses due to:

 

 

hunting, compromising, and salesperson induced costs.

 

Future: Consumer Activated Production (CAP)

 

CAP WASTE =

Retail losses due to:

idle assembly equipment and workers plus the differential costs
of labor and assembly space, and the sales rate limiting of customing.

 

 

When PDP WASTE exceeds CAP WASTE ,  then do CAP ,  IF you have the WILL ...





 

The Diffusion Dynamics

18 of 25

 




 

The Growth Picture

19 of 25

 




 

The Technological Opportunities

20 of 25

       




 

The Technological Challenges

21 of 25



CAP requires Designs AND Simulations of:

Esthetically Delightful Products in "Real (and Virtual) World" Contexts

composed of:

Very Versatile Materials , and

Highly
Mix-and-Matchable Modules

Poised For

Rapid Assembly (in minutes) of Exactly What the Consumer Wants!

Its a replay of the Diners of the 1950s; "MacDonalds" is going to take over retailing !




 

The Computer Sciences Opportunities

22 of 25



Design Software (CAD) to "invent" products and modules,


Engineering Software (CAE) to test products and design materials,


Manufacturing Software (CAM) to make the modules,


Software to assemble and simulate products in contexts, and


"Knowbots" Software (AI) to guide selection of preferences.




 

The Material Sciences Opportunities

23 of 25



Designer materials (alloys, polymers, dyes, ... ) which are:


Versatile (in strength, texture, color, ... ),


Reversible (in color, form, composition, ... ),


Separable (into constituents, fractions, ... ),


Concentratable (by extraction of a commodity ... ), and


Energy efficient during recycling.





 

The Mechanical Designs Opportunities

24 of 25



Modules which are:


Mix-and-Matchable,


Machine assemblyable (rapidly, robotically and foolproof) ,


Adaptable (to a wide range of contexts), and


Esthetically pleasing







 

The End

25 of 25






Thank you!







 

Please, take this thought with you:

 
 

"The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper."

 
   

Eden Phillpotts (1862-1960)




 


HOME E-MAIL

https://cha4mot.com/works/ucsd_sem.html as of February 2, 2013

Copyright © 1990-1997, 2013 by Cook-Hauptman Associates, Inc.

Top RETURN