Special Seminar |
May 25, 1995 |
Present Shock’s Emerging Opportunities
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A talk prepared especially for: |
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The Graduate Program in Advanced Manufacturing
The University of California, San Diego
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by: |
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James E. Cook
Visiting Lecturer
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Disposable Products |
From Barbie dolls to soda bottles, cameras, tooth brushes and towels. |
Overwhelming Choices |
Mind boggling menus, overflowing racks of clothes, and even more (possible) models than cars. |
Rootless Society |
Malls in the country and abandonment of inner cities, all for upward mobility. |
Frantic Lifestyles |
Fast food, few friends, at least two jobs per family, and less time for kids. |
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Recyclable Products |
instead of |
Disposable Products |
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Consumer Designs |
instead of |
Overwhelming Choices |
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Permanent Community |
instead of |
Rootless Society |
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Self-Paced Living |
instead of |
Frantic Lifestyles |
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UTOPIA? No. |
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Uncertain Future |
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Wealth Distribution |
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Reality Crisis |
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Permanent Communities |
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enabled by |
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Telecommunting and its enablers, the Internet and Personal Computers. |
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Self-Paced Living |
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enabled by |
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Self-paced working/ buying/ paying/ planning/ corresponding/ and playing at and near the home thanks to Cellular Phones, Portable Computers, and "Valet Knowbots." |
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Recyclable Products |
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enabled by |
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Systematic collection and processing, and a "life cycle" design mentality encompassing new products, materials and natural resources. |
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Consumer Designs |
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enabled by |
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"Outlet Factories" which rapidly construct and assemble custom designs for a lower cost thanks to CAD/CAM, Virtual Reality, and "Preference Knowbots." |
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Consumer Designs |
instead of |
Producers’ Guesses |
Resulting in the elimination of: |
Product Hunting, |
"Compromise Buying," |
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"Salesperson Friction," |
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Inventory Write-Offs, |
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Distribution Middlemen, |
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Coordination Costs, and |
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Wasted Material, Fuel, Space and Labor |
It requires that Consumers , one by one , Activate Production ! |
Consumer Activated Production - Examples | 9 of 25 |
Its already happening whenever you:
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Order a pizza or drive up to a fast food restaurant |
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Go to Lenscrafters for custom eye glasses |
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Customize a "Sentiment Card" or "Child’s Storybook" |
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Call 1-800-FLOWERS for a bouquet delivery |
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Match paint to a patch or make a door key |
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Get pictures printed in an hour right at the store |
Note:
At the same cost as Producer Driven Products, you will always get:
" what you want , when you want , where you want ! " |
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Producer Driven Production (what you’re used to today) |
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occurs with limited variety and high uncertainty (of |
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having on-hand what you, the consumer, wants). |
Consumer Activated Production occurs with unlimited, |
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but bounded, variety and high certainty (of delivering |
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what you want, when you want it, to where you want it). |
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Its enabled by:
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Well managed expectations |
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Robotic selection and "experiencing" aids |
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Very versatile materials |
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Very modular parts |
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Rapid assembly designs |
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Rapidly assemblying machines (and tools) |
Coincidentally, this is where the opportunity is! |
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Traditional:
Producer Driven ProductionExtracting |
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Refining |
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Producing |
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Assembling |
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Distributing |
¬ ® |
Retailing |
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Consuming |
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% abs. value: |
10 |
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15 |
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25 |
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50 |
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60 |
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90 |
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100 |
% value added: |
+5 |
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+10 |
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+25 |
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+10 |
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+30 |
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+10 |
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Future:
Consumer Activated ProductionExtracting |
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Refining |
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Producing |
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Assembling |
¬ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ® |
Retailing |
¬ |
Consuming |
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% abs. value: |
10 |
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15 |
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25 |
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95 |
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100 |
% value added: |
+5 |
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+10 |
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+70 |
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+5 |
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Note: The numbers shown are pro forma percentages of the "manufacturer’s suggested retail price."
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"Mass Merchandising" (1950-1980)
"Discount Merchandising" (1970-2000)
"Factory Outlet" (1990-2020)
"Outlet Factory" (2010-204?)
"Community Factory" (203?-20??)
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"Mass Merchandising"
(1950-1980)Extractor |
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Refiner |
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Producer |
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Assembler |
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Distributor |
¬ ® |
Retailer |
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Consumer |
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N A T I O N A L |
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R E G I O N A L |
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L O C A L |
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Dumper |
¿ |
"Discount Merchandising"
(1970-2000)Extractor |
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Refiner |
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Producer |
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Assembler |
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Distributor |
¬ ® |
Retailer |
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Consumer |
Ø |
G L O B A L |
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REGIONAL |
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L O C A L |
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Dumper |
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"Factory Outlet"
(1990-2020)Extractor |
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Refiner |
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Producer |
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Assembler |
® ® " PUSH " ® ® |
Retailer |
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Consumer |
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G L O B A L |
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L O C A L |
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Dumper |
¿ |
"Outlet Factory"
(2010-204?)Extractor | ® | Refiner | ® |
Producer |
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Assembler |
«  "RESONATE" « |
Retailer |
¬ |
Consumer |
Ø | ||
GLOBAL |
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N A T I O N A L |
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L O C A L |
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¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ | Recycling |
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"Community Factory"
(2030?-??)Extractor |
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Refiner |
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Producer |
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Assembler |
«   " RESONATE " « |
Retailer |
¬ |
Consumer |
Ø | ||
GLOBAL |
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E N T I E L Y L O C A L |
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¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ | Recycling |
¿ |
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Traditional: Producer Driven Production (PDP) |
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PDP WASTE = |
Retail and Distribution losses due to: |
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obsolete, stolen, discounted, damaged, and carrying inventory plus |
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Assembly and Producer losses due to: |
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transition, quantization, and coordination costs |
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Consumer losses due to: |
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hunting, compromising, and salesperson induced costs. |
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Future: Consumer Activated Production (CAP) |
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CAP WASTE = |
Retail losses due to: |
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idle assembly equipment and workers plus the differential costs |
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When PDP WASTE exceeds CAP WASTE , then do CAP , IF you have the WILL ... |
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CAP requires Designs AND Simulations of:
Esthetically Delightful Products in "Real (and Virtual) World" Contexts
composed of:
Very
Versatile Materials , andPoised For
Rapid Assembly Its a replay of the Diners of the 1950s;
"MacDonalds" is going to take over retailing !
Design Software
Engineering Software
Manufacturing Software
Software to assemble and simulate "Knowbots" Software
Designer materials
Versatile
Reversible
Separable
Concentratable
Energy efficient
Modules
Mix-and-Matchable
Machine assemblyable
Adaptable
Esthetically pleasing Thank you! Please, take this thought with you:
"The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper."
Eden Phillpotts (1862-1960) https://cha4mot.com/works/ucsd_sem.html
as of February 2, 2013
Copyright © 1990-1997, 2013 by Cook-Hauptman Associates, Inc.
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